A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
